“In late September, Washington said it would deliver National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (Nasams) defence systems in the next two months.
Mr Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said the military alliance would back Ukraine’s fight against Russia “for as long as it takes”.
The alliance’s 30 defence ministers will meet this week to discuss arms shipments to Ukraine.
And Mr Zelensky is set to continue talks with his allies from the G7 at a virtual meeting being held on Tuesday.
Ahead of the gathering, Joe Biden, the US President, condemned the Russian strikes on civilians and said the attacks “only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes”.
“These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose,” he added.”
Comment: Well, get on with it! pl
Ukraine begs West for air defence after Russia threatens further strikes (telegraph.co.uk)
No doubt the West needs to quickly find anti-missile weapons and get them to Ukraine as soon as possible. It probably should have been under way already. But to take it further, regarding Russia using nuclear weapons, Carl Bildt has made some proposals in the Washington Post (behind paywall) and it includes adopting a policy that regime change is primary, targeting military assets with conventional weapons and tie China and India, et al, to Russia with Gorilla tape. They will have to provide the gaps, or face the consequences. It would also hold various Russians personally accountable. I think NATO should adopt those recommendations and make clear what will happen if they use those kind of weapons. They will also have to contemplate that escalations will destroy Russia.
Wonderful idea about tying up China and India with Gorilla tape. I hope you do know that between China and India it is about 1/3 the world population and those pitiful monkeys will just play dead as they did in 1800 and 1900. Good luck just keep coming up with these wonderful ideas.
Lars
From that WaPo op-ed by Carl Bildt (wasn’t paywalled when I read it btw):
“..Putin’s rhetoric now comes very close to framing the situation in existential terms. He has previously described the conflict as one of “life or death” for Russia”
He ends with
“We are in a situation potentially more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis. We are faced with a leader in the Kremlin who might actually mean what he says about this being a struggle for “life or death”.”
Well Hallelujah, better late than never. Putin has been saying an anti-Russian Ukraine was an existential issue for Russia for years. Maybe some folk will actually now start to believe him.
Bildt thinks Putin is nuts. Maybe he is. If so, I’m not sure how making regime change an explicit aim of Western policy will help matters – I’m quite sure the Russian leadership doesn’t need the policy to be made explicit btw. And as for targeting Russian assets with conventional weapons – what does he think military planners do?
Bildt’s 5 suggestions to address a situation more dangerous that the Cuban Missile Crisis (his words) are mostly threats. More importantly, they conspicuously lack any suggestion that negotiation with this madman with his hand on the nuclear button may actually be a good idea. I am left wondering who is actually nuts.
All the histrionics about the possible use of nuclear weapons is tiresome. Our host, to his great credit, said right at the outset that he was willing to risk nuclear retaliation in order to support our military assistance for Ukraine. Bildt, if he truly believes Putin is serious about the existential thing, should quit offering ridiculous suggestions and just give us his honest answer to the same question. Without this we are left to wonder if he, and like minded opinionated folk, are basing their opinions/policies on an implicit belief that it will never come to that. With that matter cleared up we can get on with the war and accept the consequences, whatever they may be, without regret.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/10/putin-russia-nuclear-threat-deterrence/
Giving that it was basically only President Kennedy which stopped the US from going nuclear Carl Bildt must be predicting a nuclear responds from Russia.
Is the US willing to commit suicide with Russia and the rest of NATO when they have no obligations to do so?
There is no suicide pact with Ukraine approved by Congress like with NATO countries.
Carl Bildt seem very much like the American generals during the Cuba Missile Crisis: willing to take insane risks.
Wikipedia:”Bildt, together with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, is one of the main architects of the Eastern policy of the EU.[32]”
https://www.economist.com/europe/2013/11/23/playing-east-against-west
Europe | Charlemagne
Playing East against West
The success of the Eastern Partnership depends on Ukraine
unfortunately behind paywall:
We should have expected Russia’s air attack on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. If Putin can’t defeat Ukraine on the ground, he’ll destroy it from the air reducing it to pre-14th century rubble. “If the west denies me Ukraine, I will deny the west”. So he might have said. Ukraine, w/o heat, light, power, schools, hospitals, etc can not support its army, its life.
Putin’s horses have put their hoofs in the water. This is now total war and the Baltics, Poles, and Slovaks are watching. Will they meekly witness the rape of Ukraine (hey you know its none of our business), or together resist the Russian? Back in April I was against giving the AFU NATO jets (remember the Polish jet swap). I was wrong. Now NATO will have to provide a missile air defense system and jets to boot.
Vladi has put his cards on the table. Finns, Swedes, Czechs, Germans, and French had better show their hand. Hungary must offer, at least, a stern rebuke to Putin (can Buda-Pest be such a distant memory for them?). Its “show time” in Eastern Europe.
It’s great standing back, arms folded, yelling “ let’s you and him fight!” isn’t it Bill? When are you going to Ukraine to join in?
This is an ad hominem attack. Do not do that again.
BTW, Col. Lang assures me that Putin doesn’t have the resources to make “4th century rubble” out of anything.
That is not what I said. Damage doesn’t look all that impressive so far and the Ukies are shooting down a lot of stuff. If Biden and co. wouls get off their butts and ship them the NASAM …
I’m sorry and I apologies to Bill. The inconsistencies everywhere are getting to me.
In particular the trash talking by the media.
Sir,
Army only bought enough NASAMS to guard DC. So America does not have many to spare. Kongsberg builds the launchers and the fire control system. So their production capacity is the main constraint.
Army didn’t want to buy NASAM because they wanted to drum up funding for their own IFPC mid-range system. And then Iron Dome happened, which drained more money. NASAM for Army was always an interim solution.
According a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman air defense troops have already started training on NASAMS as of last week. Doesn’t say where though, my guess is somewhere in Europe close to the border. The maintainers will need a much longer training time, so will Raytheon ask some of their technicians to serve in Ukraine as Field Service Reps? It’s a good paycheck with some type of civilian special duty bonus.
The German IRIS-T is already in Ukraine. At least one was delivered today and three others are on fasttrack. Shorter range than NASAMS but might be better against low flying cruise missile and suicide UAVs.
My druthers would be to give them SM-3 Aegis Ashore systems like what they have in Poland and Romania. Those are stationary as far as I know and would take some time to build. But I bet some of those crackerjack Ukrainian engineering outfits could mount some on TELs pretty fast.
Are US anti-missiles better performing than those that were sold to Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks? Just wondering.
Yes, there are. The Patriot has had many product improvements since the..
Sir, I am just curious would you prefer that Putin follow Pres Bush’s attack on Bagdad killing 10,000 civilians compared to at the most 20 civilians all over Ukraine by Putin? As an concerned person looking at the Ukranian’s plight personally I would prefer Putin’s approach. Thanks
MR
He lacks the capability or would have done it.
Muralidhar Rao –
United Nations says from 24 February to 9 October: 6,221 Ukrainian civilians killed, 9,371 wounded. That counts only those they can verify, and they admit the total is probably higher. Perpetrators are Russian Army, Navy, and Air Force, plus Wagner mercenaries, Khadyrovites, and LPR/DPR militias.
Bill
“We should have expected Russia’s air attack on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure”
Who is “We”? I guess we ought to be surprised that Russia waited over 7 months before delivering the shock and awe, but who seriously thought it would never arrive? Forbes way back at the end of April put a dollar value on the 1,300 missiles used by Russia up to that point; $7.5 billion. Is this not a “cost” imposed on Russia, as per RAND’s recommendations, is it not therefore in line with US strategy to overextend and unbalance Russia?
A cynic might suggest that providing comprehensive AD to Ukraine ahead of time may have dissuaded Russia from incurring the substantial additional cost of Monday’s and today’s attacks.
Barbara Ann,
This doesn’t rise to the level of shock and awe. Yesterday there were 100 missiles and Iranian drones launched. Half of them were shot down. Ukraine lost enough electrical power that they had to temporarily stop exporting excess capacity to the EU. The Russians wasted a lot of those missiles on apartment buildings, road intersections, playgrounds and a missed pedestrian bridge. Their target planning is as crappy as the rest of their military has proven to be.
Yes. I, too, am unimpressed.
TTG,
I do not believe that Russia wasted valuable cruise missiles on playgrounds. I believe that is war propaganda.
JamesT,
Then you haven’t seen the photos and videos of the playground, apartment buildings, street intersections and missed pedestrian bridge between two parks. Half the missiles were shot down by the Ukrainians before they could even get to their targets. Russian targeting of Ukraine’s power grid is a valid target in my opinion although they should have concentrated on Ukraine’s air defense capabilities first. As I said, Russian targeting is absolute crap.
A few years ago in Syria, Russian bombing & Kalibre missiles seemed pretty effective. If you listen to the media then & now in the Ukraine the Russians only target hospitals, schools & kids. Today I’ve seen a lot of footage of a smoking hole in the dirt. If bombing dirt & trees was effective, we’d have won in VN. I’ve been surprised that the Ukrainian electric grid, bridges & railroads are intact. Also surprised that the air defenses were not strip early.
TTG: “Half of them were shot down.”
Which is a claim that you can independently verify… how, exactly?
Simply accepting the Ukrainian claim at face sits ill alongside the irrefutable fact that Zelensky has just begged Biden for air-defense systems.
I’d almost say it is naive to accept the Ukrainian claim regarding the number of missiles that they have intercepted.
WPO,
More than half were shot down today. The Russians are going to have to get back to yesterday’s pace and hold that for several weeks to overcome Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to recover. I doubt the Rooskies have it in them. Ukrainian A2/AD capabilities will only continue to build in that time.
TTG
How many conventional missiles does Russia have and what is the production rate? Can they sustain a bombardment at this intensity for several weeks – or even several days? I saw some joker on Russian Telegram citing a US think tank article (couldn’t find the source) estimating total air/land/sea launched missile stocks combined is around 1,800. He then went on to say this meant 100 a day for six months. Hmmm.
Barbara Ann,
I don’t know how many missiles Russia has left. Their production rate surely doesn’t match their burn rate. No one’s does. Russian production of anything but dumb missiles and artillery shells is also hampered by sanctions of necessary chips and electronics.
If Russia’s missile stocks are only 1,800, they’re in a world of hurt. Since the start of the war, they used well over a 1,000 in the first few weeks of the war. I can’t find a quote for total used so far. The replacement rate for Iskandar missiles has only been upped to 60 a year. I doubt others are much better.
BTW, that Russian Telegram clown is clearly not a mathematician. With 1,800 missiles at 100 a day, that means 18 days, not six months.
BA; ok you got me. I’ll change the pronoun to “one should have expected..” I too thought Putin would do the shock and awe thing at the beginning of his “special opn” but few expected the ferocity/effectiveness of the UKM. Nevertheless we are there now and to continue my sport analogy “if I cant beat you on the ground I’ll beat you in the air, and you can’t stop me!” BA you’re right, the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure will be the death of Ukraine. On another note a woman was raped on a NYC street the other day and passersby took pictures w/their cell phone cameras. She died and the DPW came and removed the body. Another day in the big apple. I made that up but it is believable! Will other Balts/Slavs just take pictures of the Ukrainian corpse or will they help her? How? I suspected my post to Pat’s blog would be somewhat controversial. This is a soul check for Ukraine’s neighbors and western Europe. Ukraine invaded no one.
Bill
Yes Ukraine is being raped and there is no excuse for the assault. However, in this analogy I would suggest that the neocons got her drunk and led her down a dark path with the express hope that this would happen. They are monsters. Ukraine needs all the true friends she can get.
James T –
Regarding the strike on the playground:
https://twitter.com/Darlto/status/1579608244557066241/photo/1
By the way I understand another of Putin’s missiles on Kyiv destroyed the office of the Russian Language Department at the National University. A bit ironic isn’t it?
BA, nothing was “imposed” on Russia. Russian costs, (lives, and equipment lost/destroyed) were the result of her decision to war upon Ukraine. If there has been imposition it is Russian troop’s destruction and death on Ukraine. Sorry if that’s pedantic but, it seems necessary to go back to Feb. 24 and remember who is the victim and who is the assailant. Ukraine invaded no one.
BA further to your comments on too much slivowitz for Ukraine; I wonder who got the Stones, Lits, and Lats drunk. Too much piva for Slovaks and Poles can cause wild Slavonic dancing and even embrace of NATO guaranteed independence. As the song suggests, some folks “are searching for war in all the wrong places” (with apologies to whoever wrote that tune) the place to look is Moscow. Post ’91 Russia had the chance to lift up her face to her neighbors and show it free of the memories of empire. She did not. Slaves, Balts, (now Finns and Swedes) recognize Russia’s unwillingness to let them be free of her and have sought NATO protection. Can all of them have misjudged the Russian character in a drunken stupor? Eastern Europeans aren’t unsophisticated bumpkins. I’ll bet they knew the nature of western neocons and chose themselves which way to turn. They all turned west.
Bill Roche,
That distrust of Moscow’s recidivism was present from very early after the Soviet Union dissolved. In the earliest days, Russians from the Academy of Sciences moved into running the machinery of state and hoped to steer it towards the East European examples. Those idealistic academics were quickly shunted aside by the security state aparatchiki, just a slightly younger strain. The East European and former Soviet states, especially the trade union crowd saw what was coming and feared for the worse. Even in those early days, they saw Belarus to be the first to fall back into Moscow’s grasp.
Bill
Not trying to argue there was any misjudgement of the Russian character or with the understandable desire of FSU countries to turn west, but I strongly disagree there was/is an awareness of the neocon character and the sinister role they play in US FP. They see Ukraine as a tool to bleed Russia, to be discarded when finished with. It would be a triumph of hope over experience to expect a better outcome if the war goes Russia’s way.
The western media assured me that Russia had depleted their missile stocks and were thus unable to continue bombing Ukrainian targets.
Seriously, though, these strikes targeted infrastructure, mostly electricity. Russia sends the message that they can and will disrupt daily lives. And though Zelensky claims that these were attacks on civilians, there are reports of 14 killed. Compare that to Day 1 of Desert Storm.
frankie p
If Russia succeeds in destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure hospitals will cease to function, there will be no water or sewerage, food distribution will become difficult, the economy will completely collapse. Many will die. If it isn’t fixed quickly Ukraine will be emptied. Europe can then expect refugees in the seven figures.
The civilians were killed by failed Ukrainian S-300s.
Peter Williams,
The Russians have been using their S-300s in ground attack mode for months. It’s not as desperate as it sounds, though. The S-300 was designed/modified to used this way as a secondary function.
These are over 30 year old Soviet weapons that have not been maintained properly. You are letting your desire for a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth get the better of you. It won’t happen.
Please explain to me in depth, Peter Williams, as to why there would not be a Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? There was once an Aztec Empire, but its cycles of time expired.
cobo,
I doubt there will be another Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but some sort of new East European commonwealth may come out of all this.
The Polish Lituanian Commonweath also included Galicia and part of White Russia. Throughout history people have assembled and dissembled so there’s no reason why some northern Balt/Slav Commonwealth could not reappear. It might make sense as a bulwark against continual Russian imperialism. I don’t know the history well enough to know if Finland was a part. Nowadays it would make sense. Balts and Finns are much the same BUT, some sort of fair rules for federation would have to be determined. I think Peter William’s comment was directed to TTG who has suggested that an North Western Balt/Slave Defense Alliance (independent of NATO) might be the result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I’ll bet Putin d/n contemplate that!
Bill Roche –
That Commonwealth worked out damn well. Grand Duke of Lithuania was also King of Poland. They plus their Scandinavian & Zaporhzhzhian Cossack allies kicked the arse of Ivan the Terrible during the Livonian Wars.
Leith,
The Lits and Poles also put an end to the northern crusades of the Teutonic Knights. That was when the Lits were still mostly pagans. They killed the Teutonic Knights they captured as was their pagan practice. Centuries later the Commonwealth under Jan III Sobieski lifted the siege of Vienna with his winged hussars. Ah, good times.
TTG –
Kyiv historians claim that there a few thousand Ukrainian Cossacks that charged along with those Winged Hussars.
Leith,
I’ve read that as well. There were also Lipka Tatars riding with the Lithuanian cavalry. They wore sprigs of straw in their caps so they wouldn’t be confused with the Tatars riding with Kara Mustafa’s Turks.
It’s nice to know that not a single civilian was killed during the entire US bombing of Iraq. Not a single one.
A bit of a Non Sequitur.
JamesT; I guess I am missing your point. Lincoln ok’d Sherman’s “march to the sea”. Roosevelt ok’d destruction of Dresden/Berlin (maybe Truman by that point), Clinton interfered with a Serbian civil war backing Kosovo, and Bush, the Unready, made a terrible mistake in a neocon invasion of Iraq. How does that mitigate Putin’s air bombardment on Ukrainian civilians?
Bill Roche,
How many civilians were killed? I have seen “11” from one source and “14” from frankie p above. Given that 100 cruise missiles were launched that is not “bombardment on Ukrainian civilians” that is a military doing a very good job of minimizing collateral damage.
Dresden was a bombardment on civilians. Putin could do a Dresden if he wanted to – but 14 dead civilians is no Dresden.
James T –
Since February anywhere from 4500 to 28000 Ukrainian civilians killed or wounded depending on whether you believe Russian estimates or Ukrainian.
No telling how many yesterday until all the debris is cleared. If it is a small number as you claim it is due to advance warning of RU missile launch and orderly evacuation to bomb shelters. It has nothing to do with General Surovikin trying to minimize collateral damage. They call him “General Armageddon” for a reason.
All of the American air defense systems depend heavily on contractor support. That, and the lack of production capacity, is probably a big factor of why we haven’t sent them.
I Understand that Russias Production of Weapons Capabilitys are greatly Reduced..For Technical Parts and guidance systems because of all the Sanctions…On Going.
.That whys they are Going to N Korea and Iran..and Back Channels..And Looking People in the EYE in the Middle Esst…Truth is..Putin Did Alot of Nasty Destruction to Ukraine in the Beginning..Viscious..Deliberate..Intimidation that Didnt Work
.Putin Arrogantly Said…In The Beginning…The British and Americans could . Pay to Rebuild in all..It Inspired the Resistance,,
As Far As NATO being Unified…The EU Didnt Like Donald Trump ..Telling Them that an Event Like This Matter WAS Coming Soon..And They Had Better Start Upgrading Thier Militarys And and Support of NATO..Putin Did NOT Attack Ukraine Then..
He Attacked After Joe..Got The Show.. Was Told to Surrender .. Afghanistan..And Mess With Europe the Was His Handlers Wanted Him Too..V. Putin..I Think..
Saw it As Weakness..Because No AID was coming to Ukraine..For a Long Time..and Piece Meal..I See It As Very Strategic..And Dangerous..No Room For even One
Mis Calculation Now..This Situation..Is Exactly What Its Been Called..
JT